CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z MON 15/03 - 06Z TUE 16/03 2004
ISSUED: 15/03 01:54Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across southern and eastern Spain

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06Z... A west to westsouthwesterly flow is present over northern Europe. A cut-off low over northern Algeria is slowly moving northward reaching southeastern southeastern Spain at the end of the forecast period. Warm advection on its northern flank induces rising motions over southeastern Spain, that destabilise the air-mass. Over the indicated area scattered storms and areas of rain are forecast, that is accompanied by thunder in some places. Low instability and shear imply severe weather is quite unlikely with these storms. Elsewhere, no significant areas of lightning activity are forecast.

DISCUSSION

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